AGP Executive Report

Banking & Fiscal Risk: Bangladesh’s finance ministry flagged scams-hit banks as a major FY27 fiscal risk, citing weak capital and heavy non-performing loans alongside broader shocks. Tax & Budget Policy: Bangladesh’s NBR says the 2026-27 budget will raise revenue by cracking down on evasion and widening the tax base, while easing compliance burdens. AI “Model Risk” Meets Finance: Canada’s Mark Carney warned that AI over-reliance—highlighted by Anthropic’s shutdown after a US export ban—could mirror systemic vulnerabilities seen in 2008, urging redundancy and diversification. Regulation & Cross-Border Flows: India amended FEMA rules to let overseas individuals invest directly in listed stocks via the Portfolio Investment Scheme, widening access and limits. Corporate/FX Probe: India’s ED searched Vedanta over alleged FEMA-linked brand fee payments, focusing on compliance with foreign exchange rules. Crypto & Stablecoins: XRP spot funds kept attracting inflows despite broader ETF weakness, while stablecoin liquidity stayed near $273B as capital largely circulated within crypto. Public Finance Under Strain: St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ finance envoy warned debt is unsustainable and pushed for fiscal discipline plus private-sector-led growth. Disaster Aid: Philippines’ DSWD fast-tracked cash assistance for Davao Occidental quake victims, with payouts planned in waves. Tech IPO Watch: Markets digested SpaceX’s IPO debut and the coming Fed meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh, with investors watching inflation and volatility spillovers.

Energy Geopolitics: Russia and China are building a parallel energy system that sidesteps Western control, with the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline seen as a direct threat to U.S. LNG exporters. Sustainable Finance: Qatar International Islamic Bank says Sustainable Fitch confirmed full alignment of its 2024 Sustainable Sukuk proceeds, with QR2.85bn allocated to eligible green and social projects. Productive Finance Push: Hana Institute of Finance and partners urged closer coordination between industrial policy and private capital, arguing “productive finance” should back both advanced tech and broader manufacturing. Crypto Regulation: Ghana’s central bank ordered banks to stop supporting unauthorised fiat-currency crypto wallet services. Tax Administration Reform: Pakistan’s Finance Bill 2026 introduces Section 47AAA to force independent scrutiny before tax appeals go to higher courts. Public Finance & Safety Nets: Sri Lanka launched a monthly Rs. 5,000 allowance for differently-abled university students, including backdated payments. Ukraine War Costs: Ukraine plans nearly €30bn more defence spending in 2026, with wages and equipment taking the biggest shares. Banking & Governance: We Energies and data center developers asked regulators to loosen collateral protections tied to new data center rate structures.

Budget Crowding-Out Risk: Bangladesh’s ICAB warned that deficit financing for FY2026-27 could pull credit from the private sector, with Tk 1.12 lakh crore planned from the banking system. Tax Target Scrutiny: Pakistan’s Senate and National Assembly finance panels flagged FY27’s “ambitious” FBR revenue target of Rs15.26tn, citing repeated shortfalls and concern over relying on enforcement over structural reforms. Trade Finance Boost: EBRD approved a $20m trade finance line for Bank of Africa-Benin to expand import-export support and deepen correspondent banking access. SME Lending Expansion: Emerald Finance raised a Rs10cr term loan from ICICI Bank, earmarked for onward lending including earned wage access. Corporate Deal Watch: JSW Energy agreed to acquire MCCPL, adding a 300MW thermal asset valued around ₹1,410cr. Digital Payments Security: Vietnam’s banks stepped up payment security efforts as AI-driven cyber threats rise. Crypto Flows: XRP ETF inflows stayed positive for five straight weeks ($10.68m), while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw continued outflows amid macro pressure. Climate Finance Pressure: El Niño forecasts point to potentially record-cost impacts, raising stakes for global and local financing needs.

Energy Geopolitics: Russia and China are building a parallel energy supply system to reduce reliance on dollar-linked trade, with the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline seen as a direct threat to U.S. LNG exports. Local Finance Reform: Spain’s long-running local financing model is back under review after municipalities warned it’s “unsustainable” for housing and social services without matching funding. Policy & Budgets: Bulgaria’s finance minister briefed ECOFIN on fiscal sustainability and a push for consolidation ahead of the 2026 budget; Bangladesh’s new finance minister tabled the 2026-27 budget targeting 7.5% inflation and 6.5% growth. Banking & Regulation: FinCEN updated guidance on how banks can share suspected fraud info under USA PATRIOT Act section 314(b); Sri Lanka’s PMF launched an Islamic finance unit (SIDQ), while risk teams there are urged to move RCSA beyond checklists. Fintech & Products: India’s Paisabazaar and SBM Bank India launched an FD-backed credit card to help build credit; AU Small Finance Bank raised FCNR deposit rates to 7.10% for NRI customers. Crypto Tax: U.S. lawmakers debated a crypto tax overhaul to simplify reporting and clarify rules for mining and staking. Corporate Moves: Metaplanet agreed to buy Siiibo Securities to expand Japan’s bitcoin-linked financial ecosystem.

AI & Financial Stability: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that frontier AI models like “Mythos” can be used to destroy the financial system, urging stronger cybersecurity and more global cooperation. Cross-Border Payments: Ripple and Bitso expanded their partnership, moving Bitso’s MXN-backed stablecoin onto the XRP Ledger and integrating it into Ripple’s DEX payments infrastructure for U.S.–Mexico settlement. Wealth & Fees: Advisors are pushing back on asset-under-management pricing, arguing flat-fee models better match planning-heavy work. Personal Finance Reality Check: Fidelity found 24% of couples hide financial secrets, while only 1 in 6 Americans feel “financially fulfilled,” highlighting a trust and planning gap. Corporate Finance Moves: United Community Banks agreed to sell equipment-finance unit Navitas to Wafra for $1.9B, aiming to boost capital flexibility. Public Budgets & Priorities: Pakistan’s finance minister presented a budget that hikes defense spending while trimming development programs, as growth and inflation pressures persist. Infrastructure Funding Idea: A U.S. researcher proposed a hybrid model to connect municipal projects with pension capital to close a massive infrastructure gap. Islamic Finance for Procurement: Uzbekistan and the IsDB explored Islamic finance tools to fund greener public procurement and expand SME access to state contracts.

Central Banking & Rates: Japan’s finance minister said BOJ Governor Ueda’s two-week hospital stay won’t derail next week’s policy meeting, with deputies set to run the session. Public Finance & Governance: Hawaii’s budget director will serve as acting governor while the governor and key officials are out of state, keeping executive authority in place. SME Credit Push: Cambodia’s finance leadership is spotlighting SMEs as a jobs engine, but the forum also flags persistent financing gaps and weak access to technology and markets. Eurozone Stability: Bulgaria joined the European Stability Mechanism ahead of euro adoption, deepening its integration into eurozone financial backstops. Household Pressure: UK GDP contracted 0.1% in April as US-Iran tensions squeeze household finances via higher energy costs. India Fiscal Watch: Reports say India may miss its fiscal deficit target for the first time since the pandemic as Iran-linked energy subsidies strain budgets. Energy Project Finance: South Africa’s Mulilo reached financial close on a 308 MWh battery storage project, with major banks providing debt and a 15-year power purchase framework. Fraud Crackdown: The US House passed Utah’s “ghost students” bill to stop identity fraud that steals federal education aid. AI in Finance: Cathay Financial is fine-tuning small language models to better classify customer intent in financial services. Compliance Deadlines: SEBI extended deadlines for firms to move non-permitted activities into Separate Business Units, citing implementation hurdles. Retail Banking Growth: ESAF Small Finance Bank crossed ₹50,000 crore in total business, reporting deposits and advances growth.

Bangladesh Trade Finance: Bangladesh Bank rolled out a framework to expand alternative trade finance beyond letters of credit, giving banks more room to use open account trade, supply chain finance and factoring while keeping risk controls. Finance Bill 2026: FICCI backed reforms in Bangladesh’s Finance Bill 2026 aimed at simplifying tax administration, boosting digital refunds and easing compliance, while flagging implementation and fiscal-target risks. Joburg Debt Accountability: South Africa’s Joburg officials faced warnings from oversight bodies not to treat debt regularisation as a fix, with calls for real accountability over irregular spending. Pakistan Economic Survey: Pakistan reported 3.7% growth and a bigger economy above $452bn, with reserves rising and remittances expected to top $41bn. AI + Finance Operations: Anthropic is reportedly seeking Google-backed support for data center leases as it ramps capacity ahead of an IPO. Digital Finance Security: The Philippines moved to strengthen cyber resilience for banks and financial institutions, updating supervisory tools amid rising account-scamming threats. NRI Banking Rates: AU Small Finance Bank lifted FCNR deposit rates to 7.10% from 5.15%, sharpening its NRI proposition. Equipment Financing Digitisation: Provide Capital launched a vendor portal to streamline equipment financing with real-time tracking and white-labeled links. Energy Project Funding: Mulilo reached financial close on a 77MW/308MWh BESS in South Africa, securing a 15-year PPA for grid support.

Pakistan Macro Update: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb formally submitted Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2025-26 to PM Shehbaz Sharif, showing mixed sector performance as budget talks with provinces continue. AI in Finance: NEC, Anthropic and eight Japanese financial institutions launched a joint initiative to test AI use in financial services with a focus on security, reliability and accuracy. India Banking Fraud: A CBI court remanded Amitabh Jhunjhunwala to CBI custody in the ₹9,280 crore RCFL bank-fraud probe, alleging funds were diverted through group-linked entities. US Fraud Case: Mahender Makhijani was arrested in the US for allegedly defrauding a bank of nearly $100m using falsified title insurance and shell-company structures. Local Government Finance (UK): Scotland’s watchdog warned councils face a near £1bn funding gap, with capital funding down and borrowing risk rising. Crypto Market Plumbing: Osaka Exchange plans Bitcoin futures by 2028 as Japan moves to expand crypto investment product rules. Tokenization Push: Ondo Finance enabled native swaps for 260+ tokenized stocks in Ledger wallets, signaling deeper on-wallet trading. Healthcare Savings: Henderson State Bank announced 2027 IRS HSA limits, lifting contribution caps for individuals and families.

Budget Integrity Clash: Nepal’s Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle denied claims of budget leaks ahead of the FY2026/27 presentation, saying amendments were only to fix errors and that rumors were politically driven. City Finance Under Fire: Houston City Council approved a $7.5bn budget with new fees, while the city controller accused it of “gimmicks” and weak transparency. New Financial Crime Agency: Canada’s Bill C-29 to create a Canadian Financial Crimes Agency faces criticism over design gaps that could blunt effectiveness against complex financial crime. Mortgage Pressure & Advice: With Euribor-driven borrowing stress rising, Brokers Finance highlighted how intermediary support can improve affordability checks and deal negotiation. Tech Modernizes Public Finance: Gambia’s GRA expanded ITAS training for tax institutions, aiming for simpler, remote taxpayer compliance. Payments & Data Center Financing: Paysecure named Vanessa Mantzarioti CFO; PACE Loan Group closed $11.6m C-PACE financing for a Texas data center conversion. Terror Financing Trial: A Kyrgyz man in Lithuania faces trial over alleged crypto-based financing of Hamas. Development Finance Push: ADB hosted a Bangladesh seminar on business opportunities from ADB- and World Bank-funded projects. Corporate Finance Moves: IIFL Finance issued $500m senior secured notes at 7.60% due 2029.

Property Tax Policy: A finance ministry rejected a flexible, instalment-based property tax system, saying the current approach balances taxpayer convenience, administration and revenue needs. Banking & Housing Finance: Dubai Holding Real Estate and Commercial Bank of Dubai launched a home financing programme with digital pre-approval and earlier access to financing from the 30% construction stage. Capital Markets: Ukraine’s NovaPay fully placed its 14th bond issue (UAH 200m) at an 18% coupon, using proceeds for further lending expansion. UK Ports Deal: Associated British Ports secured a £300m financing package (including £200m from the National Wealth Fund) to back infrastructure and create jobs across Humber ports. Car Finance Redress: Martin Lewis warned drivers not to hand over a cut of potential car finance compensation to claims firms, as FCA payouts are now unlikely before 2027 due to legal challenges. AML Enforcement: New Zealand’s High Court confirmed a record $6.73m AML/CFT penalty for ASB over transaction monitoring and customer due diligence failures. Household Strain: India’s oil-price shock is pressuring the rupee, growth and public finances as the country scrambles to diversify crude supplies. Financial Inclusion: BPI Foundation renewed its partnership with Knowledge Channel to expand youth financial literacy across schools nationwide. Crypto Infrastructure: Bitget Wallet upgraded its DEX Aggregator API to support market-order trading of tokenized real-world assets, including tokenized equities.

Disaster Finance & Public Aid: Pangasinan (Philippines) says it has surplus calamity funds and will provide financial assistance to Mindanao provinces after the June 8, 7.8 quake, with officials still finalizing amounts. Risk & Insurance Policy: New Zealand insurer IAG NZ warns natural-hazard risk is outpacing current, fragmented mitigation efforts and urges a 15-year government roadmap. Central Banking & Inflation: A former Fed official argues Kevin Warsh’s first meeting is unlikely to trigger hikes this year, while inflation pressure remains a key constraint. Crypto & Banking Access: Japan’s SBI Shinsei Bank plans crypto-linked vouchers for deposit interest, effectively turning the bank into a small-scale on-ramp for BTC/ETH/XRP. Regulation & Market Integrity: The CFTC’s Michael Selig says it will regulate perpetual futures “responsibly” as debate continues with CME. Sovereign Financing Scrutiny: The IMF cautions Nigeria over a proposed $5bn derivatives-based financing plan, warning terms can be opaque. Household Money & Inclusion: Las Vegas launches free bilingual financial workshops to help families budget, save, and manage debt. Corporate Finance & Governance: The Los Angeles Lakers appoint Elaine Shen as CFO, while a U.S. court case shows a financial services firm seeking to be wound up amid shareholder disputes.

HSBC & Taiwan Growth: HSBC says AI-driven investment, cross-border trade and wealth creation are boosting its Taiwan business, with Q1 pre-tax profit around NT$4bn and a push across trade finance, FX, advisory, markets and wealth. Wealth Tech in Practice: At Hubbis Singapore, advisor-centric AI is framed as an operational tool for meeting prep, notes, follow-ups, CRM updates and compliance—positioned as a productivity and service differentiator. Multi-Hub Wealth Model: M/HQ argues ultra-HNW families are moving from single-jurisdiction setups to multi-hub structures across Asia and the Middle East, changing how advisers chase deal flow. Budget Delay: Pakistan postpones Budget 2026-27 from June 10, with a new date to be announced after NEC rescheduling and provincial-federal funding mechanics. Green Finance Without Labels: Woori Bank expands taxonomy-based green lending (K-Taxonomy), aiming to cut greenwashing risk by proving project impact. Gold Loan Scrutiny: India’s finance ministry asks banks for detailed data on gold metal loans and gold-backed lending from 2023, hinting at further measures. ED Probes Zepto/CMRL: India’s ED summons Zepto founders in a FEMA probe and expands the CMRL case over alleged fictitious software expenses. SBI Dividend: SBI hands the government an Rs 8,813 crore dividend for FY25-26. UK Mortgage Rules: The FCA consults on mortgage rule changes to widen access for first-timers, freelancers and older borrowers. Crypto Treasury Buy: Bitmine boosts Ethereum buying during a dip, reporting its biggest 2026 ETH purchase to date. Payments Expansion: OpenWay and Visa team up to streamline payment capability rollouts across Asia-Pacific. Disaster Aid: Pangasinan pledges calamity support to Mindanao after the 7.8 quake.

Banking & Markets: Ghana’s GSE slipped on Monday, with the Composite Index down 66 points and the Financial Stocks Index down 39, though both remain up sharply since January. Stablecoins & Regulation: S&P Global warned that stablecoin growth after the GENIUS Act could reshape U.S. bank competition, deposit pricing, and lending dynamics. Consumer Stress: A New York Fed survey found nearly half of Americans say they’re worse off financially than a year ago, with job-loss fears rising. Corporate Finance: FreshDirect secured a $100m UBS commercial mortgage to fund tech and AI upgrades. Payments & Risk: Rathwood customers who never received goods may get only a nominal refund, with the watchdog urging chargebacks. AI’s Footprint: A UN report says AI data centers could consume 945TWh of power and 9.3tn litres of water by 2030. Policy & Leadership: Maldives President Muizzu appointed Hassan Zareer as finance minister after Moosa Zameer’s resignation. Fraud & Governance: Nigeria’s EFCC arraigned a couple over an alleged N1.09bn fraud scheme targeting a widow.

RBI Enforcement: The RBI slapped Canara Bank and NBFC Puran Associates with a combined ₹44.90 lakh penalty over KYC record upload delays, mishandled inoperative accounts, and incorrect asset classification for restructured loans. Market Integrity: The NSE warned investors about social-media “guaranteed returns” stock-tip operators, flagging channels and mobile numbers tied to alleged account-handling and assured-profit pitches. Energy Costs: India raised domestic LPG prices by ₹29 per cylinder, with the government pointing to global supply disruptions in West Asia and higher Saudi contract prices, while noting it absorbs part of the hit for PMUY beneficiaries. Public Finance Watch: New IMF-based analysis says the UK’s net government debt jumped to 95.5% of GDP by 2026, pushing debate as debt nears £3 trillion. Tokenization Push: Citi Institute projects tokenized asset markets could surge to $5.5 trillion by 2030, as major market players move to green-light tokenized platforms. Development Finance: Nigeria’s DBN pledged N1.3 trillion in fresh debt and equity over five years, targeting women- and youth-led MSMEs and expanding guarantees and green finance.

US Macro Shock: Stronger-than-expected US payrolls (172k in May, plus upward revisions) pushed rates higher, lifted the dollar, and hit equities—S&P 500 down ~2% and Nasdaq ~4%—while gold slid and Brent eased. FX Stress: South Korea’s won sank to the weakest since 2009 as foreign investors sold amid Middle East uncertainty and a hawkish Fed repricing; policymakers pledged to curb speculative FX moves. Sustainable Banking: Kuwait’s NBK launched a new Sustainable Financing Framework and earned an “Excellent” Sustainable Fitch rating via an independent second-party opinion. Agentic Payments: ING, Worldline and Mastercard completed Europe’s first live end-to-end agentic payment in production, with AI handling ticket discovery and purchase flow. Stablecoin Regulation: UK House of Lords urged the Bank of England to loosen overly tight systemic stablecoin limits to protect innovation and competitiveness. Public Finance Watch: US watchdog data found 13 states failed major financial audits, with auditors unable to verify billions in key spending areas. Local Inclusion & Housing Finance: Bangladesh explored bond-based long-term funding for housing loans; Tanzania’s NBC launched a diaspora-focused inclusion drive; Kenya’s Sacco-led youth credit model is expanding as banks stay out of reach.

Geoeconomic Fragmentation: A World Economic Forum report says trade and finance fragmentation is costing the global economy $213–$307 billion a year and is spreading beyond rivals, hitting allied economies too. Iran Sanctions & Crypto: The US sanctioned Iran’s largest digital asset exchanges and leaders, alleging they helped the IRGC move money, evade sanctions and fund terrorism. India Fraud Probe: India’s CBI searched six sites in Chandigarh, Panchkula and Delhi-NCR in a ₹661 crore IDFC First Bank–AU Finance Bank fraud case, alleging collusion between public servants, bank officials and a consultancy. Kenya Finance Bill Shock: Kenya’s proposed Finance Bill 2026 clause could wipe out about a third of Sh350 billion in regional trade by removing EAC excise-duty exemptions. US Banking Stability Warning: Fed official Michael Barr warned that easing bank restrictions may boost the economy short-term but could damage long-term financial stability. Green Finance Deal: The Green Finance Institute launched its CDR Catalyst, securing £1m financing for a UK biochar carbon removal project. Local Fiscal Data Push (India): India plans to release datasets for State Finance Commissions to strengthen fiscal decentralisation and local public finance analysis.